On his return from the NATO summit, Boris Johnson shortly thereafter, learned of the Chris Pincher incident, and he should have called a General Election at that point. Why? Well if you look at the next six months, we are very likely to have a General Strike of literally millions of UK workers. Inflation is currently 11.7% as measured by the Retail Prices Index and Electric & Gas have risen by over 50% under the so called “energy price cap”. There will also be a further increase in electricity and gas prices of around 30 – 40% in October and that will filter through to increase national inflation. It is not unlikely therefore that inflation could rise to 15% or more.
So, a General Strike, electricity at 40p per KWh, and food becoming unaffordable. It is going to take a very strong Government to deal with that scenario effectively, and the Conservative mandate comes from their stance on Brexit, not the cost of living crisis. If the Conservatives were to win a landslide on policies which refused pay rises above 3% in the public sector, then they could effectively fight any General Strike, and face down militant Unions. However, if Labour won a General Election now, they would have to deal with the Unions, and if that meant pay rises of around 15% being handed out, then the country would be bankrupt, or close to bankrupt, in short order. Just as in the last financial crisis, Labour would be suckered into showing that they cannot be trusted on the economy, paving the way for a Conservative landslide at any subsequent election.
But, Johnson has now been forced out and it will be for his successor to deal with the autumn and winter of discontent. This is a poison chalice for whoever takes over as Prime Minister, but, it is also a poison chalice for the Conservative Party. I doubt that they can deal effectively with the unrest that is coming and I beleve that will open the door to a Labour landslide and also independence for Scotland, if the UK fails to re-join the EU. On that point, this winter is not going to be kind to the EU so, hopefully, the UK population will see the follow of any attempt to re-join this basket case of an organisation. Germany is financially dominant in the EU, but, this winter will put paid to that as gas prices become unaffordable and businesses are forced to close laying of thousands if not millions of German workers.
Maybe the Conservatives should have let Johnson get on with it and take the flak that is coming this winter. He could have been replaced in April or May leaving plenty of time to prepare for the coming election. To be honest, I’m not seeing any display of intelligence from any of the political parties in Westminster. It is time they all grew up. This winter may force them to face reality for once.