Only three years ago, many Tories were talking of a “Canada ++” trade deal. Then Theresa May and her close advisers negotiated the worst deal in history with the EU. She excluded her Ministers in these negotiations, she even excluded the DUP who were propping up her remainer Government. Her “deal” lost to a vote on the House of Commons by the largest majority in parliamentary history. Some deal that was (is). Her mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal” was shown to be a blatant lie designed to fool the electorate.

Anyway, today, “Canada” means something entirely different. It refers to the 1993 Canadian Federal Election. The Conservatives started that election with 156 seats. By the time all the votes had been counted, they were down to just two seats. The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain will suffer the same fate if they do not rally around their new Prime Minister. The Brexit Party look set to wipe them out should a snap election be called, or indeed, if the country has to wait until 2022.

The future is not guaranteed for the Conservatives, but, it is in their own hands. If the UK is still a member of the EU on 1st November 2019, it is “game over” for the Conservatives. Maybe their defeat will be greater than that suffered in Canada in 1993. The next General Election certainly has the potential to wipe the Conservative off the UK political map forever should they continue to be split and seen to be dithering.

That phrase was written into the Conservative Party manifesto for the 2017 General Election. It was explained that the Conservative Government would attempt to get a deal agreed with the EU, but would leave with no deal if that was not possible.

Every single Conservative MP ran on that manifesto yet two thirds of the Conservative MP’s reject leaving the EU with no deal. They still point to the Withdrawal Agreement as generally a good deal which needs a few tweaks. This is the same “deal” that lost to the largest majority vote ever recorded in the House of Commons. That rejection makes it a de facto bad deal and “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

Why would any voter ever trust the Conservatives again?

The Conservative Government is incompetent to the extent that 35,000 high paid jobs have been lost due to their dithering. They are the “party for the economy yet their financial incompetence knows no bounds. I doubt they will have more than ten seats when the final count is recorded in the next General Election. Who in their right mind would vote for this shower?

They are absolutely petrified of a General Election. The Brexit Party will wipe the floor with them and they know it.

 

I think quite a few Conservative MP’s are coming round to the fact that Theresa May’s failure to leave the EU on 29th March 2019 has created an existential threat to the Conservative Party. The rise of The Brexit Party has been quite remarkable, and it is clear to anyone, where their voters are coming from.

Once again, the Conservative vote has been split, meaning they have no chance whatsoever of winning the next General Election. That means donations are, and will, dry up. Their rivals in The Brexit Party will benefit from those donations and use the money to put a better organisation together ready to fight any coming election.

By any measure, the Conservatives are now finished. Many MP’s will lose their seats and they can forget about a career in British politics.

The “vote Farage get Corbyn” mantra could be a powerful one, if anyone was listening. Unfortunately, the electorate have switched off when it comes to the Conservatives.

That is probably why the parliamentary party of MP’s are looking seriously at Boris Johnson to lead them.

I really can’t see Hunt, Gove, Stewart, Leadsom or even Raab, being able to turn the electorate away from Nigel Farage’s latest creation. But the fact remains that Johnson must leave without ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement on 31st October 2019.

We don’t owe the EU £39 billion, we haven’t signed an international treaty agreeing to an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and we must not agree to accepting EU law onto the UK statute without representation.

The only path open to the Conservatives is to leave with no deal, ignoring any non-binding votes in the House of Commons. The only way Parliament can take over this process is, if the new Government let them as Theresa May did.

A new PM could revoke Article 50, or ask for another extension, but, again, that would be political suicide.

The Conservative Leadership Contest will finish in two weeks. Let’s hope they make the right choice this time. They’re going to have to.

By the way, the dithering over Brexit has already cost 35,000 well paid jobs in the manufacturing/heavy industry sectors. Inward investment is going to dry up, until such time as the UK decides whether it wants to be in, or out, of the EU.

Leave or Remain are still the only choices.