The Conservatives may go down in history as the biggest liars ever to take power. To destroy the UKIP vote, they offered a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. They won a majority. They produced a brochure, delivered to every UK household at a cost of £9 million, extolling the dangers of a no deal Brexit (out of the Single Market and Customs Union). Leave won the referendum and they agreed to honour the “once in a lifetime” result. Cameron, however stood down rather than follow through with his promise.

Theresa May was literally given the Leadership. She was, and is, and always will be, a remainer. She packed her Government with remainers and went to the country on a written manifesto pledge that “no deal is better than a bad deal”. The electorate voted for the Conservatives on the understanding that they would get us out of the EU. Although Theresa May lost the majority, she did trigger article 50 and won a majority for legislation that set the “exit day” as 29th March 2019. She stated “no deal is better than a bad deal” over one hundred times in the House of Commons then negotiated the worst deal in history with the EU. Her deal was voted down by the largest majority in UK parliamentary history. It was, is, and always will be, a very bad deal. Yet she pressed on and refused to leave with no deal on 29th March 2019, grovelling to the EU for not one, but two membership extensions (how much has the UK paid for this?). The UK electorate realised that they had been lied to again and again and again. The formation of The Brexit Party led many, many Conservative voters, members, and activists to desert the party forever.

We are now at the point where 31st October 2019, the new “exit day” is becoming very important to the survival of this once great political party which has been brought to its knees by a very large number of liberal remainers within its ranks. Party donations have dried up and large donors are now in talks with The Brexit Party and the Conservatives to come to an arrangement which may flush out the liberal remainer wing of the Conservative Party once and for all. The idea being that The Brexit Party will only field candidates against the liberal remainers and the Conservatives will not field candidates, whenever possible, in seats that have a large leave majority. The resulting coalition will win against Corbyn and the UK will leave the EU, with or without a deal.

The Conservative Parliamentary Party is dominated by remainers, but the grass roots favour leaving, even with no deal, if that is all that is open to them. If the Labour Party come out as favouring remain, a prospect which looks ever more likely, the choice at the next General Election will be Conservative or The Brexit Party for leave, Labour or LibDem for remain. The leave vote will win in the UK’s first past the post system. There will be a large majority for leave and the UK will, at long last, leave the EU on its own terms.

If, the Conservatives reject their donors calls for a coalition with The Brexit Party, then they will simply not have the funds or activists to win anything. They could easily be down to single figures at the next election and out of power for the next twenty years, if they actually survive. There is a battle raging in the Conservative Party between the Liberal/Remainers, the Leavers and the grass root membership. The splits in the party are clearly evident in the way the leadership contest is turning out. The remainers sincerely believe that the EU will renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, and call the legal default position of the UK, leaving with no deal on 31st October 2019, a “unicorn”. That “unicorn” is actually the democratic will of the people of UK, something the remainers have no time for.

I’m looking forward to watching the liberal remainers fight their associations for the right to “represent” their electorate. There will be many de-selections and reality will at last dawn upon those who have planned, schemed and fought to stop the democratic process. I hope they have their CV’s up to date. They will be needing them soon.

Gauke, Rudd, Hammond, Stewart, Clarke, Grieve, Mordaunt, Hunt, Hancock and now Theresa May have all threatened to block a no deal Brexit. If proof were required that Theresa May and her Government were remainers looking to block the will of the electorate, then, their statements on voting against their own Government is all the proof anyone needs.

The Conservatives were wiped out at the Local elections and absolutely crushed at the EU elections. The Brexit Party are polling at 26% for a General Election, the Conservatives are on 17%. The liberal, remain wing of the Conservative Party are not delusional. They know that if a hard Brexit takes place, the fallout in the economy will lead to awkward questions, such as, “why did Theresa May’s Government spend so little time and money on no deal preparations?”, And, “why didn’t Theresa May’s Government pursue a quick trade deal with the USA which was offered by President Trump?”.

Blame will land squarely on the shoulders of Theresa May’s Remain Government adding to Theresa’s already disastrous “legacy”. No wonder they’re fighting their own party members. They are fighting for their own political lives, not the good of the UK. To state “no deal will break the Union of the UK” is absolute rubbish. The Backstop will cede Northern Ireland to the Republic and Scotland will try for the same deal, preferring the rule of Brussels to the rule of Westminster. The current Government is a disgrace and has trashed the reputation of the UK worldwide.

If enough Tories vote against their own Government, there will be an election. That election will be won by The Brexit Party. The Brexit Party will win a majority and probably Nigel Farage will be Prime Minister.

The Conservatives have no chance of winning the next election. They are split. They do not deserve to Govern this country. They deserve to be cast to the four winds and consigned to the history books.

I really hope that Boris Johnson is serious about leaving on 31st October with or without a deal.

The Brexit Party are still ahead in the General Election polls on 26% with the Conservatives on just 17%.

If Johnson survives a vote of no confidence (I expect that he will) but doesn’t leave on 31st October 2019, all hell could break loose. With The Brexit Party riding high in the polls, it is possible that several Conservative MP’s could join up to Farage’s new party leaving the Conservatives with no chance to govern. Boris Johnson could well be forced into calling an election before 2022, and the Conservatives could find themselves out in the wilderness for the next twenty years, that is, if they actually survive as a political party.

So, it’s up to the Conservatives, do they want to remain in power? The fact is, if Theresa May had walked from the “negotiation” in 2017, and sought a quick deal with the USA, Australia and New Zealand, the UK would be out of the EU, she would be the PM and the EU would be fast tracking a free trade deal with no mention of the backstop.

The UK is a major market for German auto’s, around £50 billion a year, and the Republic of Ireland relies heavily on the UK for access to its “land bridge” and inward (and outward) investment. The border is a concern for the two signatories of the British Irish Agreement, namely the ROI and the UK. The international treaty makes no mention of an “open border”, so any talk of the UK breaking the Good Friday Agreement is pure nonsense.

The Conservative may now have a second chance, but success, which for them would be a majority at the next General Election, is far from guaranteed.