From a report by the Bank of England on a “hard” Brexit…

“Britain’s economy faces contracting by 8 percent in the space of about a year — compared with 6.25 percent in the crisis — in response to severe border delays and financial markets’ loss of confidence in British institutions.

Unemployment would rise to 7.5 percent, with only the mass emigration of workers stopping it exceeding its crisis peak.

This “disorderly” scenario is not what the central bank sees as the most likely outcome should Britain leave the EU without a deal, but does represent a plausible outcome which it has asked British banks to protect themselves against.”

Again: “This “disorderly” scenario is not what the central bank sees as the most likely outcome should Britain leave the EU without a deal”

Why even publish it then?

The bank of England was actually proposing a scenario where all trade with the EU, exports and imports, ceased COMPLETELY on 1st April 2019. This was not only the most unlikely outcome, but it was actually impossible given that the EU and the UK had taken steps to mitigate the worst effects of a breakdown in “frictionless trade” and that the Bank of England itself was ready to take steps to mitigate the financial consequences.

Even though the scenario was absolutely impossible, the Bank of England still presented this baseless propaganda to the Government for general distribution. Very shoddy work from a national institution. The Governor is still in his job by the way. How?

John Bercow agrees that there is no way for parliament to block the UK leaving with no deal on October 31st 2019. Bercow told the French daily Le Figaro at the weekend: “Our default legal position, if no deal has been approved and if no extension is negotiated with the EU, is that we will leave the Union. In other words: we will be unable to prevent a hard Brexit. But if you ask me if there is a majority in parliament in favour of a no-deal exit, my answer is no.”

The only way to stop a committed leader from exiting the EU on WTO terms then, is to bring the Government down in a vote of no confidence in the hope that a Government committed to remaining, i.e. revoking Article 50 will be elected.

Anyone who states “no deal will be blocked” is simply ignorant or peddling second rate propaganda that fools no-one.

Image result for 2008 damage uk economy

People who say leaving the EU with no deal will be “catastrophic” for the UK economy are simply talking drivel. The 2008 “credit crunch” affected huge numbers of UK businesses. Small to Medium Enterprises (SME’s) form the backbone of the UK economy, in fact there are 5.7 million SME’s which account for 99% of all business in the UK. SME’s contribute £billions to the UK economy (well over a £trillion in fact). The vast majority of SME’s in UK have never exported anything to anywhere. All SME’s are bound by EU Single Market rules.

The credit crunch ran deep. I personally know four people who were affected. Some were made redundant some were on three day weeks. A lot of small businesses went bust when their overdrafts were called in. Around 1.3 million jobs were lost. The UK exports over £250 billion to the EU each year. Trade would have to cease completely after Brexit in order to get a mild recession. Trade will DEFINITELY not cease completely. Nowhere near. In 2008 financial institutions lost $2.8 trillion. The Bank of England estimates the UK economy lost £7.4 TRILLION in lost output.

Losing around £50 – £100 billion trade to the EU isn’t nothing, but, it is nowhere near £7.4 trillion and anyone trying to make a comparison between Brexit and the credit crunch is simply deluded. We have heard that planes will be grounded, trucks will be parked for days and days, and all trade with the EU will STOP dead if we leave with no deal. This is obviously bullshit of the highest order and this propaganda may fool primary school children, but, anyone who has access to information (I use a thing called the internet) can smell it a mile away.

 

After three years, quite a few people in the UK, including many MP’s and even Cabinet Ministers, see a “no deal” Brexit as a “catastrophic” occurrence that will make the crash of 2008 look like a walk in the park. They sneeringly say “I thought that would be the easiest trade deal in history” or “as if the UK had any leverage in this negotiation” or even “planes will be grounded, trucks will be held in 25 mile long traffic jams and trade with the EU will cease altogether, forever”.

First, I would say to these doom mongers, the trade deal hasn’t started to be negotiated, because, the EU stated from the off that trade would not be on the table until the UK had left the EU. Has the UK left the EU? So please stop this propaganda about a “trade deal”. It is, quite frankly, childish to expect grown adults to swallow that nonsensical argument.

The remainers also point to “leverage” in the “deal”. The UK exports £274 billion to the EU, while EU imports to the UK are £341 billion. OK, they say, we need the EU more than they need us, so any talk of leverage is a “unicorn”. But, if those who wish to leave say the word “sovereignty”, remainers are quick to state that the UK and all members of the EU are separate and sovereign. I see, so, remainers count trade with the EU as a figure that represents the whole of EU members, i.e., £341 billion, but will not acknowledge the fact that £50 billion of that figure,  around 15% is made up of German car imports into the UK, in fact the UK is German automakers largest market. So what? They say, as if £50 billion can be made up by selling elsewhere anytime the Germans feel like it. As if the Germans are doing the UK a favour. So what? Well, if trade with Germany was to CEASE altogether when the UK leaves the EU, the German car makers would go bankrupt. The USA would become Germany’s largest market, providing trump with an ace card that he would use to impose 25% tariffs on the ailing industry. To dismiss German automakers from any trade deal is simply wrong. They have already inputted into the Withdrawal Agreement ensuring their minimum requirement of a permanent Customs Union with the UK. That would be the backstop, by the way. German automakers are VERY concerned about any loss of trade with the UK and they will do everything in their power to prevent a no deal Brexit.

The same goes for The Republic of Ireland. Their agricultural economy would simply collapse in the event of tariffs being applied by the UK. If they lost access to the “land bridge” across the UK, the ROI would suffer massive damage to their economy. They would definitely be the biggest losers in this scenario. Is it any wonder that they came up with the idea of the backstop to keep the UK tied to the EU forever? A no deal outcome, could actually be an existential threat to the ROI economy.

The Netherlands, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and more, have a vested interest in ensuring a good trade deal is struck with the UK. Not any deal of course, but “the easiest trade deal in history”. That means it has to be FAST to ensure the absolute minimum impact on member states economies. If you think member states don’t count when it comes to trade, we can look at the Spanish orange growers insistence that a 16% tariff be levied on imports from non EU countries to protect their industry. The tariff was originally 3.2% but was raised to 16% after lobbying by Spanish orange growers, concerned that imports from South Africa would impact their industry. Spanish oranges are worth around £1 billion a year, but, the remainers argue, German automakers would be quite happy, if not delirious,  to turn their backs on the UK’s £50 billion market? Seriously? That doesn’t even get close to being a valid argument. It is, in fact, a “unicorn”.

So, the fact is that the UK has not entered into trade talks yet, but the EU has now provided itself with all the ace cards, but only, if, the UK ratifies the Withdrawal Agreement. If ratified, the interests of exporting member states will been protected and if that means the UK suffers, then that is OK too. The only way to achieve “the easiest trade deal in history” is to leave the EU cleanly and move onto WTO terms while trade deals are negotiated. EU members will then, as always, lobby hard to get any barriers to trade removed. That is a fact. But remainers like to state that all trade with the EU will cease FOREVER should we leave without a deal. They state that planes will be grounded, trucks will be parked, holiday’s in the EU will be a thing of the past, the UK will lose £341 billion of exports. None of these things will come to pass. The EU member countries aren’t that thick. They will have a real beef with the EU Commission should any “punishment” lead to loss of jobs or downturns in economies.

For the UK, as Theresa May stated, no deal is the only way forward. It always has been.

Penny Mordaunt writes…

“In truth, the reason Brexit hasn’t happened yet has nothing to do with the lack of mandate, but the lack of a majority to enact it. True, some politicians have tried to frustrate the process. On the Labour side for political gain. On the Conservative side, for purity of outcome.”

This, as she knows, is pure fantasy.

The UK does around £200 billion of trade with the EU. It was reasonable to assume that the EU would wish to continue trading with the UK as smoothly as possible after the UK’s “exit day”. Once the Government had triggered Article 50, we entered a negotiation vital to the interests of this country. The aim was simple; to protect as much trade as possible, or, replace it.

As soon as the EU made its negotiation position clear, that it would not discuss trade until after the UK had left the EU, the negotiation was over and the UK should have immediately been talking trade with the USA, Australia and New Zealand (and any others willing to trade). The USA re-negotiated NAFTA in less than two years, so a trade deal could have been completed by “exit day”, maybe enough to mitigate our losses from trade with the EU. The clock was ticking and the EU was prepared to run the clock down leaving us with nothing.

But, foolishly, the UK accepted the EU taking control of the negotiation. A second point where the UK simply had to walk away was reached in late 2017 when the backstop was taking shape. The UK did walk. They walked into a trap from which they have failed to escape ever since. The backstop has effectively stalled any chance of the UK leaving with a so called “deal”. The ONLY reason to accept the backstop was to remain tied to the EU, which is exactly what Theresa May and her Government set out to achieve. Their backers are large multi-nationals who need the minimum of a Customs Union to continue trading freely. Theresa May was often in communication with around 150 directors, yet she failed to communicate with the 5.7 million SME’s that form the backbone of the UK economy. She also failed to communicate with the DUP, without whose backing, her Government would fall. Very strange to say the least.

Penny Mordaunt claims there is no majority for no deal, yet no deal is the default position voted for by a majority of MP’s. They voted to leave on 29th march 2019. That “exit date” is now legally, the 31st October 2019 and if the UK has not left the EU by then, the Conservatives will not exist as a political force beyond 2020 or earlier if a snap election is called.

The EU have stated on numerous occasions that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened yet Penny Mordaunt puts her faith in the fact that Jeremy Hunt can change the deal so that it can gain a majority in Parliament.

Hunt is delusional, Mordaunt is in denial. And the Conservatives will cease to exist as a political party should they follow this lunatic “strategy”.

Get the UK out on 31st October 2019. Make a success of it. Win the General Election in 2020. If the Government is brought down by remainers before then, the Conservatives still have a good crack at a majority, but only if they are SERIOUS about leaving with no deal. If not, The Brexit Party will destroy their vote.

Note to Penny Mordaunt – In our first past the post system, the word “populism” should not be treated with contempt.

 

Since the early nineties, the UK had a problem accepting the EU’s move towards “ever closer union”. What started as a trading club to the advantage of all has now turned into a supra national, undemocratic, nightmare.

The UK pays the fees of a full member, yet is in the second tier. Outside the “eurozone” and excluded from meetings of the top tier eurozone membership.

Something had to give. Political parties were split. UKIP were taking more and more votes from the traditional parties, mostly due to “free movement” required by the EU’s Single Market.

Cameron’s referendum was inevitable. That leave would win, was inevitable. It is now time for “remainers” to accept that the only way for them to triumph is to leave on 31st October 2019, preferably with no deal.

There can only be two outcomes. The first being that the UK makes a great success of life outside the EU. Trade will not cease with the EU. The UK could easily succeed without the restrictions imposed by Brussels.

On the other hand, if the remainers are correct, the future will be bleak. A minimum of £250 Billion will be wiped from the UK’s GDP. The UK will become an international pariah, unable to borrow money on the world markets. After a few years, the UK will beg to become a full member of the EU, accepting the Euro and the concept of “ever closer union”. The UK will then take its rightful place at the centre of the Eurozone.

What is not to like? Remainers are convinced the UK cannot survive outside the EU, so it is obvious that the second option is the more realistic outcome. But the attempted destruction of our democratic process by devout remainers is not acceptable, and is simply driving more and more people into voting for parties committed to leaving the EU as a democratic right.

To put this problem to bed once and for all, we need to leave the EU with no deal on 31st October 2019 and put faith in our democratic and economic systems. Fully in the EU or fully out, the UK will thrive. Being half in and half out is proving to be a disaster. If you don’t believe me, ask the 10,000 automotive workers or the 25,000 steel workers who have already lost their jobs due to our dithering Government and weak leaders.

Aided by the Speaker of the House of Commons, MP’s put forward a motion to take over business in the house on 25th June. The time was to be used to present a bill worded to prevent a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019.

The motion was defeated 309 to 298.

A similar motion was passed in early 2019 paving the way for the Cooper/Letwin Bill which was fast tracked through the House and forced the PM to request an extension to the UK’s membership of the EU.

This defeat adds weight to Boris Johnson’s campaign to be the next Leader of the Conservatives and next PM of the UK.

The EU elections proved that the people who voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum are still a major force in UK politics. They will not go away and they will split the Labour and Conservative vote at any future election.

Yet Parliamentarians do not even acknowledge them. They continue to conspire to prevent the UK leaving the EU with no deal even though the law is clear that the UK’s exit date is set for 31st October 2019. Parliamentarians cannot change that law. However, with the unprecedented help of the Speaker of the House of Commons, they can introduce new laws and fast track them onto the statute. They could require the new PM to ask for yet another extension, but they would have no case if, for example, the next PM asked for 24 hours. I doubt the MP’s voting to prevent Parliament being closed down would succeed. The Government has that power and can use it at will.

A business motion will be put forward today in order to take over the House of Commons timetable on 25th June. This will present an opportunity for Parliamentarians to introduce new law onto the statute.

It is almost as if the local elections and EU elections never took place.

Hopefully, many of these “patriotic” MP’s will be thrown on the scrapheap at the next General Election.

An extraordinary decision by Commons Speaker John Bercow to allow Labour to table a Commons business motion, which would normally be the preserve of the Government has led to a cross party motion being put forward today in Parliament. If voted through, Parliamentarians will take over business in the house on June 25th allowing them to introduce and fast forward a Bill to thwart the new PM’s attempt to leave the EU with no deal. Any candidate for the Conservative Party Leadership who votes for the motion can be expected to be eliminated with a loss of Ministerial privileges and loss of the Conservative whip. De-selection processes have already started in some Conservative Associations and these can be expected to increase as we get nearer the “exit day” of 31st October 2019.

Forcing a new Government to accept a deal from the EU or revoke Article 50 could lead to a snap General Election. Letwin’s and Grieve’s argument appears to be “we can’t leave without a deal, it would wreck the economy, better to force a General Election that Corbyn would win”.

If you can make sense of that, please let me know.

It is, and it always has been, a possibility that the UK could leave the EU with “no deal”. And it is the Government of the UK’s responsibility to prepare for that eventuality. After all, we don’t expect to be involved in a war anytime soon but that doesn’t mean we stand down our armed forces.

The resignation of Karen Wheeler, director general of Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs Brexit border delivery group, prompted a source close to Wheeler to state “Nothing is happening in Whitehall now. Lots of people have been stood down on Brexit no-deal preparations and there is a general risk that people are just going to see this hiatus as an opportunity to clear off and go into the private sector”

If this unpreparedness doesn’t show the incompetence of a Theresa May led Conservative Government, I don’t know what does.

This after three years to prepare for the worst case.