Jonathan Lis is deputy director of the thinktank British Influence and writes in the Guardian “Johnson and Hunt’s wild promises don’t matter. No-deal Brexit will never happen”. Let me repeat “No-deal Brexit will never happen”, according to Jonathan Lis.
But why “never”?
Well the facts according to Mr Lis are that… “The first line of defence against a no-deal Brexit used to be the fact that it would destroy millions of livelihoods, torpedo the economy and cripple our national infrastructure. Accordingly, the second was that no rational prime minister would ever seriously countenance it.”Continue reading
The latest YouGov survey shows more people in the UK want to leave the EU than want to remain. 28% of those surveyed are happy with a hard Brexit on 31st October 2019. Also, Dominic Raab is correct when he states that any vote in parliament to block no deal will have zero legal effect. Theresa May actually bent over backwards to comply with the wishes of parliamentarians, when, in effect their votes were non binding on the Government. The fact is that without Government support, parliamentarians cannot change the law which states the UK leaves on 31st October 2019 with or without a deal.
It is very important to understand that The Withdrawal Agreement is not a trade negotiation. Member states have communicated their wishes to the EU’s negotiators and the UK has been very compliant. Too compliant in fact. The German carmakers and Irish agri food producers have a minimum requirement of a customs union and the Backstop provides that without a unilateral right of exit for the UK. Member states in the East are generally net beneficiaries and the £39 billion “divorce bill” means the cash can keep flowing to those countries. Continue reading
Every day, over 1,000 trucks come into the UK with components and spare parts for the automotive industry. The UK manufactures car engines, lots and lots of them. They are mostly exported to the EU. Any delays to the “just in time” manufacturing systems employed by the automotive industry will be a disaster. UK based automotive companies will also face EU tariffs when exporting to the EU. But, even if we stay in the EU, does the UK automotive sector have a future?Continue reading
From Amber Rudd, Work and Pensions Secretary…
Speaking after Johnson broke his recent silence to be questioned about Brexit and his personal life in a BBC interview, Rudd added to warnings that his government could be swiftly brought down if it pushed for a no-deal Brexit. Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, who supports Jeremy Hunt in the leadership contest, said while she would not vote to support a no-confidence motion against a Johnson government to stop no deal, speculation that up to a dozen Tory MPs might do so seemed “about right”.Continue reading
Here are the names of the 10 Tory “rebels” that voted for Corbyn’s motion to take control of parliamentary business…
Guto Bebb (Aberconwy), Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe), Jonathan Djanogly (Huntingdon), Justine Greening (Putney), Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield), Sam Gyimah (East Surrey), Phillip Lee (Bracknell), Oliver Letwin (West Dorset), Antoinette Sandbach (Eddisbury), Caroline Spelman (Meriden).Continue reading
Dominic Grieve, Kenneth Clarke and a few others, have stated they will vote against their own Government in a vote of no confidence, in order to stop the UK leaving the EU without a deal.
OK, I presume they will do this to prevent the damage to the UK economy caused by a “hard” Brexit. Very patriotic, I’m sure.
But, what if Jeremy Corbyn wins the resulting election?Continue reading
Today, the Chancellor, Philip Hammond will say “We cannot allow ourselves to be forced to choose between our democracy and our prosperity. If the new prime minister cannot end the deadlock in parliament, then he will have to explore other democratic mechanisms to break the impasse. Because if he fails, his job will be on the line – and so, too, will the jobs and prosperity of millions of our fellow citizens.”Continue reading
From a report by the Bank of England on a “hard” Brexit…
“Britain’s economy faces contracting by 8 percent in the space of about a year — compared with 6.25 percent in the crisis — in response to severe border delays and financial markets’ loss of confidence in British institutions.
Unemployment would rise to 7.5 percent, with only the mass emigration of workers stopping it exceeding its crisis peak.Continue reading
John Bercow agrees that there is no way for parliament to block the UK leaving with no deal on October 31st 2019. Bercow told the French daily Le Figaro at the weekend: “Our default legal position, if no deal has been approved and if no extension is negotiated with the EU, is that we will leave the Union. In other words: we will be unable to prevent a hard Brexit. But if you ask me if there is a majority in parliament in favour of a no-deal exit, my answer is no.”
The only way to stop a committed leader from exiting the EU on WTO terms then, is to bring the Government down in a vote of no confidence in the hope that a Government committed to remaining, i.e. revoking Article 50 will be elected.
Anyone who states “no deal will be blocked” is simply ignorant or peddling second rate propaganda that fools no-one.