Theresa May, after her deal suffered the largest defeat in UK Parliamentary history, put her deal once more to the House of Commons. Could she win? Not a chance in hell. The only reason for putting the deal to a vote again was to allow Parliament to take control of the timetable of the House and put forward a bill requiring the PM to ask for an extension. If Theresa May had not put her ludicrous deal to Parliament after the first attempt, the Letwin/Cooper bill would have not seen the light of day.
And so, the meaningful vote as required by law, has been held and no further vote is necessary. Parliamentarians cannot take control again unless the new PM allows it to vote and put forward motions. A private members bill could be put forward, but, the Government has control of the timetable so can easily make sure time is not allocated.
Therefore, the only way to prevent a the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 31st October 2019 is to bring the new PM and his Government down. This will require at least three Conservative MP’s to vote against the Government in a vote of no confidence. This practically guarantees a General Election and a possible win for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. But, there could be an upset with The Brexit Party taking a majority, they could certainly be “the Kingmakers”. The Conservatives, of course, would not be seen in power again for the near future, if ever again. Once you have lost the trust of the people, you need to work very hard, over a very long period, to restore it.
The Conservative MP’s who vote against their own Government had better have some cushy jobs to go to. They will never work in politics again, that is guaranteed.
The UK automotive trade will lose at least 10,000 jobs very soon. Some have already gone. There will be more. British Steel is in administration with no way to pay back the £120 million of taxpayers money lent to it by the UK Government. The money was immediately paid to the EU for carbon credits. There are estimated to be 25,000 jobs linked to British Steel. They may all be lost.
The EU’s trade deal with Japan has not helped the UK one bit. Japan can take manufacturing back home or set up in the EU if they wish. Tariffs are now a thing of the past. However, if the UK signs up to a customs union with the EU, Japan will also be able to access the UK market tariff free while charging our manufacturers tariffs to import their goods to Japan.
It is fair to say that there is a global slow down and Ford have shed thousands of jobs in China due to car sales collapsing, but the incompetence and dithering of the UK Government is equally to blame for this shambolic situation.
The UK Government have shown no leadership whatsoever. They were simply wrong to sign up to the EU Environmental Trading Scheme until 2022. The EU then decided that UK companies would no longer benefit from free carbon credits and handed a £120 million bill to British Steel. That is gross incompetence. If the UK had left on 29th March 2019, that bill would have not been presented and UK taxpayers money could have been used to revive our steel industry, if that industry was considered viable.
The UK Government have two options. Leave with no deal on 31st October 2019 or revoke article 50.
Any more dithering and thousands more good jobs will be lost.
The Peterborough by-election has put the Conservatives right back to where they were in 2014. UKIP were taking their vote and that prompted David Cameron to offer a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, as part of the Conservative’s 2015 General Election manifesto.
And here we are just a few years later with the Conservatives in EXACTLY the same position they were in back then. The referendum had to be offered to kill UKIP and this time around, the Conservatives will have to be out of the EU on 1st November 2019 to kill off The Brexit Party.
They can promise the earth, but the electorate will have no more of that.
The Conservatives need to deliver, or cease to exist as a political force in the UK.
The Brexit Party have now learned valuable lessons from Peterborough and more activists will defect from the Conservatives this year. Large donors will divert their money to Nigel Farage’s party, knowing that any money donated to the Conservatives will be wasted on a party that can only mange third place at best.
Like him or loathe him, at this moment in time, only Boris Johnson can save the party, but that is certainly not guaranteed.
Whatever happens, this is going to be a big year for the Conservatives.
I’ve heard several candidates for the Conservative Leadership state that a vote of no confidence could collapse the Government if it went for a no deal exit from the EU. It is assumed that some senior Conservative MP’s will vote against the Government if they attempt a hard Brexit.
But, what if the Government decided to ask for another extension of Article 50 from the EU. What if several members of the ERG did a deal with The Brexit Party and resigned the Conservative whip? An election in that instance could suit The Brexit Party with one analyst stating that The Brexit Party could gain a 200 seat majority if the results of the recent EU election were repeated in a General Election.
Michael Gove states that a General Election at the end of this year would probably result in a coalition Government between Labour and the SNP. He doesn’t even recognise the existence of The Brexit Party in his calculation.
If The Brexit Party win the Peterborough election today, it will send shock waves through the Conservative Party who will need to seriously consider backing a candidate who isn’t afraid to leave with no deal.
Even doing that is no guarantee that the Conservatives can save their party from extinction.
It may just be too late.
Several senior Conservative MP’s have stated they will vote against the Government in the event that a no deal exit seems likely.
That wouldn’t necessarily stop a “hard” Brexit though.
If the Government lost the no confidence vote, they have 14 days to “re-gain” the confidence of the house, before having to go to the country.
What if “exit day” happened within this 14 day period? Or before the General Election was held? Who could stop this happening? What if Macron gets his way and no extension is on offer after the 31st October?
With the showing of The Brexit Party in the EU elections, it could be to the Governments advantage to have left the EU before they go into a General Election.
They just might win.
Having said that, no Conservative MP who votes against the Government would have a cat in hell’s chance of standing for the party in the next General Election.
Do they have the guts to carry out their threats?