With the Conservatives looking likely to go for a no deal Brexit and The Brexit Party gearing up for a snap election, pressure is on Jeremy Corbyn to state his party’s position on leaving the EU, clearly. And he has now stated that Labour will back REMAIN should there be a second referendum on the subject. I think Labour will also back REMAIN if a General Election becomes reality before the end of the year. The Party has no choice, they need to get supporters back from the LibDems and The Brexit Party have claimed the hard Brexit battleground. Continue reading
Month: July 2019
‘A person appointed by national government to conduct official negotiations and maintain political, economic and social relations to another country.’ Is the very definition of the UK Ambassadors job. However, Sir Kim Darroch is now the subject of the President of The United States wrath. He is to be shunned, and the only way he can carry out his role now is to watch CNN news for updates on the Trump Administration. Continue reading
It’s a long shot, currently at 100-1 or more, but, there is a possibility that Nigel Farage could be the next Prime Minister after Theresa May. Many people in the UK believe that the Conservative Leadership Contest will elect the next Prime Minister but that is not true. The membership of the Conservative Party will vote to elect the next leader of the party, but, the only one who can appoint a Prime Minister is the Queen. To become Prime Minister, the candidate must be the one “most likely” to achieve the confidence of the House of Commons, and, with a majority of only three, including the DUP, Boris Johnson may find himself leader but not PM. Continue reading
Employment minister, Alok Sharma made a statement recently which should be of interest to anyone who linked low wages to the EU’s “free movement of people” which allows unlimited immigration from the member countries of the EU. He said… ‘While EU nationals accounted for almost half of the UK’s growth in employment between 2014 and 2016, since 2016 that has fallen to five per cent. Yet since the referendum, there have been over one million more people in work in the UK. Employers are clearly already adjusting to lower immigration from the EU and it is UK workers who have filled the gaps.’Continue reading
Just as the Conservative membership were about to fill out their ballot papers, up pops the story, that Theresa May did not trust her Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson to view highly sensitive information as he was seen as a “security risk”. The timing was perfect, but, YouGov threw a spanner into the works by publishing its poll showing that support for Hunt’s campaign could fall below 25%. It looked certain that at least 70% of the members would vote for Johnson and make him the next leader of the Conservatives.Continue reading
The latest YouGov poll of Conservative members puts Jeremy Hunt on 26% with Boris Johnson taking 74% of the vote. The “surge” alluded to by the Hunt team, appears to have evaporated (did it ever exist? Is Jeremy Hunt as good a negotiator as he claims?). Anyway, if Boris Johnson is elected by the Conservative membership, he will become the Leader of the Party, but not the Prime Minister. The Queen will then appoint the person “most likely” to achieve the confidence of the House of Commons. The Conservatives, together with the DUP, have a majority of three, so, if Boris is offered the Prime Ministers job by the Queen, look out for any Conservative MP’s resigning the Party whip to create an immediate constitutional crisis. Of course, Conservative MP’s could resign the whip the moment Johnson is elected Leader, which would then provide a quandary for the Queen. Without a working majority, Johnson could not be the most likely to achieve the confidence of the House. In that instance, Theresa May could put forward a humble address to state her confidence in Johnson, however, this tactic opens a door to amendments which could scupper Johnson’s stated aim to achieve a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019. Continue reading
German carmakers export around £50 billion worth of new cars into the UK each year. If the UK exits the EU on 31st October 2019, then those exporters will face tariffs of around 2.5% on their vehicles. That will be devastating in their number one market, but, if their number two market, the USA, follows through with their threat to impose 25% tariffs on German cars, that could, literally, be the end for them. We’re talking thousands of jobs here. We’re also talking a shock which no Government could survive if they did nothing to mitigate the losses. But, that is exactly what will happen say the Remainers. Nothing will be done to eradicate tariffs. The German carmakers will not lobby the German Government and the German Government will not lobby the EU to get a quick “interim agreement” in place, to eliminate tariffs and smooth trade. They would be perfectly happy with huge losses to their profits, large numbers of skilled workers laid off and a possible win by the more “populist” political parties.Continue reading
David Gauke appears to dislike “populist politicians” who tell the electorate “what they want to hear”. He, along with several others in Theresa May’s Government, including May herself, “negotiated” the worst deal in history, now known as The Withdrawal Agreement. Mrs May actually signed this document. These politicians treat the electorate with contempt by holding teleconferences with large Multi-National Corporations to gauge the views of around 150 CEO’s on the details of the UK’s “transition” from EU member to EU satellite. The Withdrawal Agreement was never intended to allow an “independent trade policy” for the UK. Once the UK ceases to be a member of the EU, not one of the free trade agreements negotiated by the EU will apply to the UK and a “customs arrangement” provides a tariff free backdoor into the UK market for any non EU country with a FTA. The Backstop is a de facto Customs Union that the UK can never leave without EU approval. Why would the EU even consider letting the UK operate as an independent trading nation? The Withdrawal Agreement is simply designed to fool the electorate into thinking we have left the EU when nothing could be further from the truth. That is the reason it failed by the largest vote in parliamentary history. Theresa May was even on the phone to her 150 CEO’s while at the same time ignoring the DUP, the political party that was allowing her to remain in power.Continue reading
In the Latest YouGov Poll for voting intentions at the next General Election, Labour are polling fourth with 18%, LibDems are polling 20%. The Conservatives have 24% support with The Brexit Party one point behind on 23%. In a General Election, no party would have a majority, but a Conservative coalition with The Brexit Party would be able to govern with a comfortable majority. The same, of course, also goes for a LibDem, Labour coalition, but, Labour have yet to declare if they support leaving the EU or remaining. Labour Party fence sitting is definitely leaving voters confused as to exactly what they stand for. The only way forward for the Labour Party now is to declare for remaining in the EU by revoking Article 50. That appears the only route to power for Jeremy Corbyn.
Jonathan Lis is deputy director of the thinktank British Influence and writes in the Guardian “Johnson and Hunt’s wild promises don’t matter. No-deal Brexit will never happen”. Let me repeat “No-deal Brexit will never happen”, according to Jonathan Lis.
But why “never”?
Well the facts according to Mr Lis are that… “The first line of defence against a no-deal Brexit used to be the fact that it would destroy millions of livelihoods, torpedo the economy and cripple our national infrastructure. Accordingly, the second was that no rational prime minister would ever seriously countenance it.”Continue reading