From a report by the Bank of England on a “hard” Brexit…

“Britain’s economy faces contracting by 8 percent in the space of about a year — compared with 6.25 percent in the crisis — in response to severe border delays and financial markets’ loss of confidence in British institutions.

Unemployment would rise to 7.5 percent, with only the mass emigration of workers stopping it exceeding its crisis peak.

This “disorderly” scenario is not what the central bank sees as the most likely outcome should Britain leave the EU without a deal, but does represent a plausible outcome which it has asked British banks to protect themselves against.”

Again: “This “disorderly” scenario is not what the central bank sees as the most likely outcome should Britain leave the EU without a deal”

Why even publish it then?

The bank of England was actually proposing a scenario where all trade with the EU, exports and imports, ceased COMPLETELY on 1st April 2019. This was not only the most unlikely outcome, but it was actually impossible given that the EU and the UK had taken steps to mitigate the worst effects of a breakdown in “frictionless trade” and that the Bank of England itself was ready to take steps to mitigate the financial consequences.

Even though the scenario was absolutely impossible, the Bank of England still presented this baseless propaganda to the Government for general distribution. Very shoddy work from a national institution. The Governor is still in his job by the way. How?

John Bercow agrees that there is no way for parliament to block the UK leaving with no deal on October 31st 2019. Bercow told the French daily Le Figaro at the weekend: “Our default legal position, if no deal has been approved and if no extension is negotiated with the EU, is that we will leave the Union. In other words: we will be unable to prevent a hard Brexit. But if you ask me if there is a majority in parliament in favour of a no-deal exit, my answer is no.”

The only way to stop a committed leader from exiting the EU on WTO terms then, is to bring the Government down in a vote of no confidence in the hope that a Government committed to remaining, i.e. revoking Article 50 will be elected.

Anyone who states “no deal will be blocked” is simply ignorant or peddling second rate propaganda that fools no-one.

I can easily see the EU giving the UK another extension. The Commission is being lobbied hard by German automakers who will do anything to preserve their customs union with the UK. Food producers are also happy for the UK’s membership of the EU to continue indefinitely. Huge sums of money are at stake and UK political parties need cash to fight elections. Work it out for yourself.

If Labour come out in favour of a second referendum then they are also in favour of a further extension, because, more time will be required to organise such a vote. There needs to be legislation put forward to a vote in the commons, and there are strict rules laid down by the electoral commission to allow for proper debate.

But, what, exactly is the argument for a second referendum? The first hasn’t been implemented, so why should we have a second? The remainers are crowing about the “sovereignty of parliament”, yet the same people wish to include Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement on a ballot, the same “deal” that parliamentarians voted down by over 200 votes, the largest defeat in parliamentary history. I think the argument “parliamentarians can’t decide, so give it to the people” is, quite frankly, insane.

No, the better route is a General Election via a vote of no confidence. Why Labour would declare for a second referendum before a tabling a vote of no confidence has me perplexed to say the least. It certainly shows a lack of discipline in the party. The fact is, a second referendum is a road to nowhere.

 

Even though the mainstream media would have you believe that MP’s prevented the UK leaving the EU on 29th March 2019, that is pure propaganda. The fact is, it was in Theresa May’s power to leave the EU on the “exit day”. That was the law and MP’s cannot change the law. However, the propaganda covers Theresa May’s intention to provide exactly what large multi-national corporations required, namely that the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU to protect their trade. Trade between the UK and the EU is largely automotive and food. Germany alone exports £50 billion worth of vehicles to the UK each year, making the UK the largest market for their products (the USA being second). The UK exports millions of car engines to the EU each year. This trade is actually doomed to fail eventually as more countries follow the UK’s lead and ban fossil fuel from their energy mix. The future of fossil fuel transport is bleak, so it is vital that automakers make as much profit from their existing markets, while they still can.

So Theresa May tried to compromise to please all.

The backstop was brilliant as it trapped the UK in a Customs Union until the industrialists lobbying the EU decided the Customs Union was no longer useful. The UK has no unilateral exit from the backstop, which suits the EU perfectly. Just to be clear though, the UK has made no agreement with The Republic of Ireland to ensure an open border between ROI and Northern Ireland. That, again is pure propaganda.

The Withdrawal Agreement also stops free movement of people. Theresa May thought this would be enough to sell it to the people of the UK and their representatives. Her frustration, like a child at playschool to be honest, was plain to see every time she tried to get her deal through the commons. She had stopped free movement and provided a permanent customs union, what more did people want?

Well, her statement that the Withdrawal Agreement allowed an independent trade policy for the UK was just a blatant lie. In a Customs Union, trade deals could be made with nations outside the EU, but, any nation that has a free trade agreement with the EU can export their goods into the UK tariff free, if they arrive in the EU first, e.g. Rotterdam. So, why would Japan do a free trade deal with the UK, eliminating tariffs for UK imports into Japan, when Japan can already export to UK tariff free. This was the problem that Turkey woke up to when the EU was negotiating a trade deal with the USA. Turkey realised that the tariffs they levied on goods from the USA (billions in fact) would be lost once the USA exported to Turkey via the EU/Turkey Customs Union. No advantage whatsoever for Turkey in that deal.

The Withdrawal Agreement also puts the European Court of Justice in the driving seat with regard to UK law, and, there is also the small matter of EU law being written to UK statute without any UK representation whatsoever. £39 billion?

The Withdrawal Agreement was exactly what Theresa May and her Government wanted. It wasn’t foisted on them. They gladly agreed to everything the EU wanted, because that is what their sponsors, large multi-national corporations, wanted. The level of corruption here is plain for anyone to see.

In order to gain the trust of the UK electorate, the Withdrawal Agreement must now be burned on live TV (the BBC in fact). To pursue this lunatic deal is to request annihilation at the next election. Theresa May has gone, but her deal still lingers on.

 

Image result for 2008 damage uk economy

People who say leaving the EU with no deal will be “catastrophic” for the UK economy are simply talking drivel. The 2008 “credit crunch” affected huge numbers of UK businesses. Small to Medium Enterprises (SME’s) form the backbone of the UK economy, in fact there are 5.7 million SME’s which account for 99% of all business in the UK. SME’s contribute £billions to the UK economy (well over a £trillion in fact). The vast majority of SME’s in UK have never exported anything to anywhere. All SME’s are bound by EU Single Market rules.

The credit crunch ran deep. I personally know four people who were affected. Some were made redundant some were on three day weeks. A lot of small businesses went bust when their overdrafts were called in. Around 1.3 million jobs were lost. The UK exports over £250 billion to the EU each year. Trade would have to cease completely after Brexit in order to get a mild recession. Trade will DEFINITELY not cease completely. Nowhere near. In 2008 financial institutions lost $2.8 trillion. The Bank of England estimates the UK economy lost £7.4 TRILLION in lost output.

Losing around £50 – £100 billion trade to the EU isn’t nothing, but, it is nowhere near £7.4 trillion and anyone trying to make a comparison between Brexit and the credit crunch is simply deluded. We have heard that planes will be grounded, trucks will be parked for days and days, and all trade with the EU will STOP dead if we leave with no deal. This is obviously bullshit of the highest order and this propaganda may fool primary school children, but, anyone who has access to information (I use a thing called the internet) can smell it a mile away.

 

So says the liberal remainer wing of the Conservative Party. David Gauke just tweeted that, whilst drumming up support for Rory Stewart.

Here is Rory Stewart’s plan…

“I’ll present the Withdrawal Agreement to Parliament for a vote” (vote number 4 that is).

“So, what will you try to get changed in the Withdrawal Agreement to make it acceptable?”.

“I won’t change anything. I will change the minds of MP’s who voted against it before.”

OK. Sounds reasonable. If you want the Conservatives to cease to exist as a political party that is.

The fact is, The Brexit Party are praying for Rory Stewart to become next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. They will be practically guaranteed a majority at the next General Election.

Come on Rory!

After three years, quite a few people in the UK, including many MP’s and even Cabinet Ministers, see a “no deal” Brexit as a “catastrophic” occurrence that will make the crash of 2008 look like a walk in the park. They sneeringly say “I thought that would be the easiest trade deal in history” or “as if the UK had any leverage in this negotiation” or even “planes will be grounded, trucks will be held in 25 mile long traffic jams and trade with the EU will cease altogether, forever”.

First, I would say to these doom mongers, the trade deal hasn’t started to be negotiated, because, the EU stated from the off that trade would not be on the table until the UK had left the EU. Has the UK left the EU? So please stop this propaganda about a “trade deal”. It is, quite frankly, childish to expect grown adults to swallow that nonsensical argument.

The remainers also point to “leverage” in the “deal”. The UK exports £274 billion to the EU, while EU imports to the UK are £341 billion. OK, they say, we need the EU more than they need us, so any talk of leverage is a “unicorn”. But, if those who wish to leave say the word “sovereignty”, remainers are quick to state that the UK and all members of the EU are separate and sovereign. I see, so, remainers count trade with the EU as a figure that represents the whole of EU members, i.e., £341 billion, but will not acknowledge the fact that £50 billion of that figure,  around 15% is made up of German car imports into the UK, in fact the UK is German automakers largest market. So what? They say, as if £50 billion can be made up by selling elsewhere anytime the Germans feel like it. As if the Germans are doing the UK a favour. So what? Well, if trade with Germany was to CEASE altogether when the UK leaves the EU, the German car makers would go bankrupt. The USA would become Germany’s largest market, providing trump with an ace card that he would use to impose 25% tariffs on the ailing industry. To dismiss German automakers from any trade deal is simply wrong. They have already inputted into the Withdrawal Agreement ensuring their minimum requirement of a permanent Customs Union with the UK. That would be the backstop, by the way. German automakers are VERY concerned about any loss of trade with the UK and they will do everything in their power to prevent a no deal Brexit.

The same goes for The Republic of Ireland. Their agricultural economy would simply collapse in the event of tariffs being applied by the UK. If they lost access to the “land bridge” across the UK, the ROI would suffer massive damage to their economy. They would definitely be the biggest losers in this scenario. Is it any wonder that they came up with the idea of the backstop to keep the UK tied to the EU forever? A no deal outcome, could actually be an existential threat to the ROI economy.

The Netherlands, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and more, have a vested interest in ensuring a good trade deal is struck with the UK. Not any deal of course, but “the easiest trade deal in history”. That means it has to be FAST to ensure the absolute minimum impact on member states economies. If you think member states don’t count when it comes to trade, we can look at the Spanish orange growers insistence that a 16% tariff be levied on imports from non EU countries to protect their industry. The tariff was originally 3.2% but was raised to 16% after lobbying by Spanish orange growers, concerned that imports from South Africa would impact their industry. Spanish oranges are worth around £1 billion a year, but, the remainers argue, German automakers would be quite happy, if not delirious,  to turn their backs on the UK’s £50 billion market? Seriously? That doesn’t even get close to being a valid argument. It is, in fact, a “unicorn”.

So, the fact is that the UK has not entered into trade talks yet, but the EU has now provided itself with all the ace cards, but only, if, the UK ratifies the Withdrawal Agreement. If ratified, the interests of exporting member states will been protected and if that means the UK suffers, then that is OK too. The only way to achieve “the easiest trade deal in history” is to leave the EU cleanly and move onto WTO terms while trade deals are negotiated. EU members will then, as always, lobby hard to get any barriers to trade removed. That is a fact. But remainers like to state that all trade with the EU will cease FOREVER should we leave without a deal. They state that planes will be grounded, trucks will be parked, holiday’s in the EU will be a thing of the past, the UK will lose £341 billion of exports. None of these things will come to pass. The EU member countries aren’t that thick. They will have a real beef with the EU Commission should any “punishment” lead to loss of jobs or downturns in economies.

For the UK, as Theresa May stated, no deal is the only way forward. It always has been.

OK, Rory Stewart would stick with the Withdrawal Agreement.

“What would you change to make it acceptable”

“Nothing, I would change the minds of MP’s so they would accept it”

Er…

That probably means the UK never leaves the EU and parliamentary time for the next three years is devoted entirely to getting the Withdrawal Agreement accepted. But, how do you vote on something that has been rejected three times when Bercow has ruled that is unconstitutional?

THAT is your plan?

Seriously?

Some Conservative MP’s have actually voted for Rory Stewart to become next Prime Minister of the UK.

These guys just don’t want to remain in power, or for the Conservative Party to exist.

Only three years ago, many Tories were talking of a “Canada ++” trade deal. Then Theresa May and her close advisers negotiated the worst deal in history with the EU. She excluded her Ministers in these negotiations, she even excluded the DUP who were propping up her remainer Government. Her “deal” lost to a vote on the House of Commons by the largest majority in parliamentary history. Some deal that was (is). Her mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal” was shown to be a blatant lie designed to fool the electorate.

Anyway, today, “Canada” means something entirely different. It refers to the 1993 Canadian Federal Election. The Conservatives started that election with 156 seats. By the time all the votes had been counted, they were down to just two seats. The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain will suffer the same fate if they do not rally around their new Prime Minister. The Brexit Party look set to wipe them out should a snap election be called, or indeed, if the country has to wait until 2022.

The future is not guaranteed for the Conservatives, but, it is in their own hands. If the UK is still a member of the EU on 1st November 2019, it is “game over” for the Conservatives. Maybe their defeat will be greater than that suffered in Canada in 1993. The next General Election certainly has the potential to wipe the Conservative off the UK political map forever should they continue to be split and seen to be dithering.

Monday June 17

15.00 – 19.00: Second hustings.

By 19.00: Notification of proxy vote for second ballot.

Tuesday June 18

By 13.00: Notification of proxy vote for third ballot.

15.00 – 17.00: Second ballot.

18.00 approx: Announcement of result.

20.00: Deadline for candidate withdrawal.

Wednesday June 19

15.00 – 17.00: Third ballot.

18.00 approx: Announcement of result.

By 19.00: Notification of proxy votes for fourth and fifth ballots.

20.00: Deadline for candidate withdrawal.

Thursday June 20

10.00 – 12.00: Fourth ballot.

13.00 approx: Announcement of result.

14.00: Deadline for candidate withdrawal.

15.30 – 17.30: Fifth ballot.

18.00 approx: Announcement of result.

Friday June 21

12.00: Deadline for candidate withdrawal (if necessary)

 

ConservativeHome